California’s Hidden Crime Crisis Amid Newsom’s Claims

Gavin Newsom’s latest crime-stat comparison is a reminder that politicians can “win” a stat war while dodging the public-safety questions families actually live with.

Story Snapshot

Gov. Gavin Newsom used per-capita homicide rates to argue California looks safer than several Republican-led Southern states during a June 2025 political clash.
A major fact-check rated Newsom’s claims “Mostly True,” finding his Alabama figure overstated but his Oklahoma and Arkansas comparisons essentially accurate.
The dispute erupted after Republican officials criticized disorder and unrest in Los Angeles tied to protests against Trump administration immigration enforcement.
The same fact-check highlighted a major caveat: California’s overall violent-crime ranking looks worse than its homicide-only comparisons.

How the June 2025 Crime Fight Started

Sen. Tommy Tuberville blasted Los Angeles as looking like a “third world country” with “anarchists” in charge, as protests and street disorder dominated national attention in June 2025. Gov. Gavin Newsom fired back on social media with a narrow but potent rebuttal: homicide rates. Within days, Sen. Markwayne Mullin and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders also criticized California’s leadership, and Newsom responded with more state-to-state homicide comparisons.

Newsom’s posts leaned on per-capita homicide rates rather than raw totals, which is the right way to compare states with very different populations. But the political context mattered: the argument wasn’t simply about spreadsheets. It was about whether “soft-on-crime” governance, permissive policies, and a tolerance for disorder have real-world consequences. Newsom aimed to shift the conversation from visible chaos to a single metric that favored his talking point.

What the Fact-Check Actually Confirmed—And What It Didn’t

A June 2025 analysis concluded Newsom’s homicide-rate comparisons were “Mostly True,” using CDC homicide data from 2022 and noting that FBI data from 2023 generally mirrored the same pattern. Newsom said Alabama had “3X” California’s homicide rate; the review found Alabama was closer to about 2.5 times California—still higher, but not triple. Newsom’s Oklahoma claim of “40% higher” matched a measured 41% difference.

Newsom’s Arkansas claim—“literally DOUBLE”—held up under the same review, which found Arkansas’ homicide rate was roughly double California’s. The analysis also flagged a technical sloppiness: Newsom sometimes used “murder” and “homicide” interchangeably even though the CDC’s category is “homicide.” That doesn’t change the broad direction of the numbers, but it highlights how quickly political messaging turns careful definitions into viral slogans.

The Bigger Caveat: Homicide Isn’t the Whole Violent-Crime Picture

The same analysis emphasized a limitation that matters to voters trying to judge “safety,” not just “spin.” When measuring overall violent crime—homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery—California’s standing looks less flattering than the homicide-only comparison. California was cited at 30th nationally at 5.9 per 100,000. Arkansas was cited at 6th at 11.8 per 100,000, and Oklahoma at 20th at 8.3 per 100,000.

That caveat illustrates how a selective metric can be both accurate and incomplete at the same time. Homicide is the most severe outcome, but families also react to daily quality-of-life threats: assaults, robberies, and public disorder that make communities feel unsafe. In a political showdown, choosing homicide alone can narrow the lens enough to claim victory, even while critics point to broader indicators that better capture what residents experience.

Why This Matters to Conservatives Watching Governance and Accountability

The back-and-forth also landed in a broader debate about law, order, and the constitutional balance between citizens and government. Newsom has repeatedly championed gun-control approaches, including public attacks on Republican lawmakers who resisted measures like the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. That history helps explain why he leans on crime statistics as a governing argument: it supports a narrative that public safety comes from more regulation rather than from enforcement, accountability, and respect for lawful self-defense.

Gavin Newsom's BS About Calif. vs. Tenn. Gets NUKED by Marsha Blackburn and MANY Others (Including Grok)

Just like ALL his BS.https://t.co/wRWB52h58z

— Michael Dorstewitz (@MikeDorstewitz) February 17, 2026

Based on the available research, the clean takeaway is narrower than either side’s social-media rhetoric: Newsom’s specific homicide-rate comparisons to Alabama, Oklahoma, and Arkansas were largely supported by credible data, but his framing left out the broader violent-crime context that many voters use to judge safety. With President Trump back in office in 2026 and immigration enforcement back on the front burner, the bigger question is whether leaders focus on full-spectrum safety—or keep picking one “winning” stat while disorder remains visible.