U.S. military strikes in Somalia threaten to escalate tensions between the recognized federal government and Somaliland’s unrecognized autonomous region, as President Mohamud offers “exclusive operational control” of strategic ports and airfields to American forces—including facilities in territory Somaliland considers its own.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike targeting al-Shabab militants 40 miles northwest of Kismayo, demonstrating continued American military involvement in Somalia
- Al-Shabab is regaining strength by exploiting political infighting and challenges with the new African Union peacekeeping operation
- Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has offered the U.S. exclusive access to air bases and seaports, creating tensions with breakaway Somaliland
- The strategic port of Berbera, claimed by Somaliland but offered to U.S. forces by Somalia’s federal government, has become a flashpoint in regional tensions
- Somalia faces a fragmented anti-terrorism coalition, with coordination issues among various security forces hampering efforts against al-Shabab
U.S. Airstrikes Target Growing Al-Shabab Threat
U.S. military forces recently conducted an airstrike against al-Shabab militants in Somalia, targeting an area 40 miles northwest of Kismayo. The operation was carried out by U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces. This operation comes as intelligence reports indicate al-Shabab is experiencing a resurgence in the region, exploiting political divisions and weaknesses in Somalia’s security infrastructure. Military officials have noted the terrorist group’s increasing capabilities and threat level to both regional and American interests.
“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade al-Shabab’s ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our citizens abroad,” stated AFRICOM, in its official announcement regarding the operation.
Somalia’s Internal Fragmentation Complicates Counter-Terrorism Efforts
Somalia’s federal system, modeled after Ethiopia’s, remains plagued by clan-based power struggles that undermine security operations against terrorist groups. The current “4.5 formula” for power-sharing among clans has been widely criticized for entrenching divisive clan politics while marginalizing minority groups. Somalia’s provisional constitution failed to clearly define the distribution of responsibilities between the federal government and member states, creating persistent jurisdictional disputes that al-Shabab exploited. These structural weaknesses have created gaps in security coordination that terrorist organizations have learned to navigate effectively.
“We [Somalis] are clans, subclans [and] sub-subclans,” said President Mohamud, highlighting the challenge of building national unity in a deeply fragmented society.
The anti-al-Shabab coalition suffers from serious coordination problems among Somalia National Army units, clan militias, state security forces, and international peacekeepers. Each element operates with different command structures, capabilities, and often competing agendas. This fragmentation provides al-Shabab with opportunities to regroup and launch attacks against isolated or vulnerable targets. The African Union Support and Stabilisation mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) faces significant funding challenges, particularly after the Biden administration backed away from the UN-centered funding system that previously supported regional security operations.
Somaliland Tensions Erupt Over U.S. Military Partnership
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recently offered the United States “exclusive operational control” over strategic air bases and seaports, including facilities in Berbera, a key city claimed by Somaliland. This move has inflamed tensions with Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but lacks international recognition despite operating its own government, security forces, currency, and holding regular elections. Somaliland officials view Somalia’s offer of their territory to foreign powers as a direct violation of their sovereignty and a threat to their long-standing autonomy.
“Al-Shabab has proven both its will and capability to attack U.S. forces,” stated AFRICOM, in justifying continued military operations in the region, highlighting the security imperatives driving American involvement in Somalia.
Somalia’s 2026 Elections Face Growing Security Threats
Federal elections scheduled for May 2026 in Somalia face mounting threats from both political instability and terrorist activity. The current indirect electoral system, which relies on clan elders and representatives to nominate parliament members who then elect the president, remains vulnerable to manipulation and corruption. Al-Shabab’s increasing operational capacity directly threatens the electoral process, with the group historically targeting government officials, electoral infrastructure, and civilian population centers during political transitions. The compromised security environment could undermine the legitimacy of upcoming elections.
The international community, particularly the United States and European partners, faces a critical decision point regarding Somalia’s future. If Western support wavers, Somalia might turn to China or Russia for security assistance, as both nations have demonstrated strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. The potential for Somalia to shift into alignment with these powers represents a significant geopolitical risk for American interests in a region that controls vital shipping lanes and has strategic significance for counter-terrorism operations. President Trump’s administration has consistently advocated for strong, direct approaches to combating terrorist threats while avoiding entanglement in costly nation-building exercises.
